Stagnant Market: XRP Price Holds Near $1.40 Amid Lack of Buying Interest
The XRP price has remained relatively stable at around $1.40, despite the recent release of 1 billion XRP from escrow by Ripple. The market's inability to absorb the released coins has led to a stalemate, with neither buyers nor sellers willing to make a move.
Released XRP Still Sitting in Escrow
At the start of September, Ripple released 1 billion XRP from escrow, but by the end of the day, only 300 million sat outside new time locks. This means that the released coins are still being held within Ripple-labelled wallets, rather than being sold or deposited into an exchange. The remaining 700 million XRP were re-escrowed, with two new escrows taking 500 million and 200 million back, respectively. This leaves 300 million XRP, worth approximately $422 million, outside those locks.
Buy Orders Accumulate, But Buyers Remain Absent
Despite the large amount of XRP available for purchase, buy orders sitting close to the current price add up to a mere $108.2 million. This means that the 300 million coins are worth almost four times what buyers are ready to absorb. The market's inability to absorb the released coins has led to a stalemate, with neither buyers nor sellers willing to make a move.
Long-Term Holders Refuse to Sell
The oldest supply of XRP, which has been holding onto its coins for 1-2 years, has refused to sell into the recent pullback. This is evident from the fact that the 1-2 year holding band has risen from 17.3% of supply in late August to about 18.2% now. This stillness cuts both ways, as daily volume (all traders) has fallen every session since the August 22 burst, down to about 27.6 million XRP.
Chart Analysis Suggests a Golden Cross
The XRP chart is close to a golden cross, where the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) climbs above the slower 200-day line. The fast line sits at $1.3516 against $1.3540, close enough to cross on any decent day. However, crossovers built on falling volume are the ones that fail, and fading volume shows up as lost leadership.
Market Sentiment Remains Divided
The market sentiment remains divided, with large traders and big accounts looking confident in a rise, but their bets are not being backed up by significant amounts of money. Most large accounts sit on the bullish side without putting much behind it, and their shorts are the bigger trades. This is evident from the futures market, where the ratio of bets on a rise to bets on a fall flips when weighed by money, and the gap runs negative.
Key Levels to Watch
The XRP price trades at $1.4079, above both averages, which keeps the recovery alive. Confirmation sits at $1.4785, about 5% up, the level that has capped every rebound since late August. Clearing this level opens $1.5832, then the $1.6678 to $1.7038 area around the August peak, a 21% move from here. A daily close below $1.3092 breaks the setup, indicating a potential reversal in the market.
