Bitcoin Bottom In? Two Analysts Agree on Direction

In a rare display of consensus, two independent analysts have concluded that the Bitcoin (BTC) bottom is in, despite their vastly different approaches to analyzing the market. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, and the analyst known as Root, who publishes at Bitcoin Strategy, both reached the same conclusion, albeit from separate charts and data sets.

Edwards' Market Hedge Ratio Signals a Bottom

Charles Edwards' Market Hedge Ratio measures the USDT/BTC market cap ratio over a rolling 30 days. This ratio fell to -20.42%, touching the -20.78% threshold marked on his chart, indicating that capital is rotating out of stablecoins and into Bitcoin. Edwards' chart marks roughly nine comparable signals since January 2020, with most preceding rallies. However, one signal in October 2021 landed close to a cycle top. Edwards' explicit invalidation for the signal is that it holds only until the ratio flips red. His stated horizon runs weeks rather than months, providing a clear window for potential upside. Edwards noted, "It's very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole's Market Hedge Ratio is this green. Downside is basically capped in the last 5 years until it flips red. Typically this reading means we have week(s) of upside to run."

Root's Price Structure Analysis Confirms a Bottom

Root, who publishes at Bitcoin Strategy, reached the same conclusion from price structure alone. His chart tracks the moment price reclaims the 200-day average, the 21-week average, and the short-term holder cost basis. Previous breakouts sat 1,375 days and 1,384 days apart, a gap of only nine days across roughly 7.5 years. The current breakout arrived 1,314 days after the 2023 signal, therefore about 65 days ahead of that rhythm. Root noted that the current breakout happened roughly two months ahead of schedule compared to previous cycles. While two months is still substantial, and a reason why we can't entirely rule out a continuation of the bear market, the timing cuts both ways. The four-year cycle placed this bottom four months early, and the breakout deviates considerably less than the low did.

Key Levels to Watch

Bitcoin traded at $79,755 at the time of writing, down 0.23% over 24 hours. Market cap sits near $1.6 trillion. Price holds above all three levels, though barely. The 21-week average stands at $79,355, leaving a cushion of 0.5%. Beneath it, the short-term holder cost basis sits at $70,853 and the 200-day average at $69,785. Those two levels sit around $1,000 apart, forming a support shelf near $70,000. Grayscale placed its own bottom estimate in that same zone. A weekly close beneath that shelf would break both thesis at once. Holding $79,355 keeps them alive.

Implications and Next Steps

The two calls agree on direction and share almost nothing else. Edwards measures weeks, whereas Root measures a cycle. Both published the level that would prove them wrong. The implications of this consensus are significant, as it suggests that the conditions defining a bear market have stopped being present. However, it's essential to note that neither analyst predicted a bull run. The next steps for investors will be to watch the key levels mentioned above, particularly the support shelf near $70,000. A weekly close beneath this level would break both thesis at once, while holding $79,355 keeps them alive. The market will be closely watching these levels in the coming days and weeks to determine the next direction for Bitcoin.