Bitcoin or Solana: Which Doubles First?

Bitcoin and Solana are two of the most prominent cryptocurrencies in the market, with both having the potential to double in value. However, the question remains, which one will reach this milestone first? To answer this, we need to look at the current prices, the catalysts driving their growth, and the predictions made by analysts.

Current Prices and Doubling Points

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $78,565, and it would need to reach $157,130 to double. On the other hand, Solana is trading at about $103, and it would need to reach $206 to double. While Bitcoin needs to break into uncharted territory to reach a 2x gain, Solana only needs to reclaim a price it has reached before.

Catalysts for Growth

Bitcoin's catalysts run more on institutional buying and the broader liquidity environment than on anything happening on the network itself. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in $986.9 million during the week ending September 4, according to SoSoValue, more than the Ethereum, Solana, and XRP funds took in combined. When new money flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, the funds need to acquire Bitcoin to back the new shares, creating additional demand for BTC.

Solana's catalysts, on the other hand, run through its own network upgrades as much as through outside buying. Solana's Alpenglow upgrade targets a reduction in transaction finality, the time it takes for a transaction to become permanent and irreversible, from about 12.8 seconds down to roughly 150 milliseconds. This upgrade will make the network more usable for payment and trading volume rather than just speculative trading, which tends to support a higher price over time.

Analyst Predictions

Standard Chartered's base case has Solana reaching $250 by the end of 2026, and its bullish scenario reaches $350, both already above the $206 level Solana needs to double from today's price. Standard Chartered ties its Solana prediction to Bitcoin reclaiming $85,000 first, since Solana and other higher-risk crypto assets tend to need a stronger Bitcoin before they can sustain their own rallies.

Bitcoin's most recent named target from the same bank, $100,000 by the end of 2026, falls well short of the $157,130 Bitcoin needs to double, even with Standard Chartered noting that figure could prove too low. Solana's smaller ETF base also means the same dollar of new institutional buying moves its price further in percentage terms than it would move Bitcoin's.

What to Watch Next

Our view would change if Solana's ETF inflows keep falling the way they did this past week, when net inflows dropped 96%, or if Bitcoin fails to reclaim $85,000, the level Standard Chartered ties its Solana target to. It would also change if Alpenglow or Firedancer slip their expected 2026 timelines. Conversely, if Bitcoin's ETF demand keeps growing well beyond Solana's, Bitcoin could close the gap faster than any analyst target currently suggests.

Conclusion

While both Bitcoin and Solana have the potential to double in value, the question remains, which one will reach this milestone first? Solana's smaller ETF base and its own network upgrades give it more room to double on similar fresh demand. However, Bitcoin's institutional buying and the broader liquidity environment make it a strong contender as well. The outcome will depend on various factors, including ETF inflows, network upgrades, and the overall market conditions.

As we wait to see which one will double first, it's essential to keep an eye on the developments in both Bitcoin and Solana. The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and any significant change in the market conditions can impact the prices of these two cryptocurrencies.

What's Next for Bitcoin and Solana?

Bitcoin's ETF demand continues to grow, and if it maintains this pace, it could close the gap faster than any analyst target currently suggests. Solana's Alpenglow and Firedancer upgrades are expected to be completed in 2026, which could further support its price. The outcome will depend on various factors, including ETF inflows, network upgrades, and the overall market conditions.